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'''Socionomics''' is a concept invented by Robert R. Prechter, Jr in his book ''Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction'' first published in 1999, and supported in his later book ''Pioneering Studies In Socionomics'' in 2003.

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==Criticism==
Much has been published based on the assumption that the Socionomic Hypothesis is true but the vast majority of this has been authored by Prechter himself and his company, Elliott Wave International.
  Because of Prechter's commercial interest in pushing Socionomics, it can be deemed unsafe to treat this work as unbiased and objective.  The Socionomics Institute and Socionomics Foundation promise to add to the body of literature but their institutional-sounding names belie that they were founded by Prechter and continue to be funded by him.  As of early 2006, there is very little in the way of unbiased, neutrally-postured criticism in the public domain.

The major criticism that has been levelled at the Socionomic Hypothesis is that, whilst it has had some extremely compelling successes in explaining many apparent paradoxes of human social and economic behaviour and even the outbreak of disease, it lacks universal applicability.

For example, with respect to the following events dating from 2001-2003:

* the World Trade Center attacks
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* why racist football-crowd chants and London tube bombs occurred in 2005 as the FTSE was surging

Some have speculated that it was the response to these events that revealed an expansive social mood; that is, the international community did not break rank when the USA threatened Iran in 2006, and the people of London continued to use the tube in 2005 even as the risk of bombing was made so clear, but critics would argue by return this is 
fitting the facts to fit the theory because the Hypothesis should explain events directly if it is correct.  Rather like with the Wave Principle itself, the analyst can explain anything away after the event, but it has only limited predictive value in real time and will often lead the analyst to become emotionally attached to the wrong conclusion.  Cynics say that a valid hypothesis should not need so many excuses or postdiction.

The most difficult problem of all for the socionomic approach is that the extremely bearish books by Mr. Prechter ('' At The Crest of The Tidal Wave'' (1995), and '' Conquer The Crash'' (2002) ), which draw upon Elliott's Wave Principle and Prechter's own melding of technical analysis with socionomics, have so far been auguries of enormous stock market rallies.

In summary a critic might say that since 1995 Prechter's framework has occasionally produced impressive forecasts of negative events and that it is not without merit, but that it is too strongly weighted on the negative.  What for a Socionomist is overfrothing positive social mood for others is simply "progress".  Socionomics and by implication the Wave Principle must therefore be flawed or incomplete or hard to practice well.

An alternative conclusion might be that the theory will gain more respect over time, once it has perhaps developed a reputation for consistent accuracy, or understood better.

As Prechter's site itself says,an intellectually dishonest fudge and an attempt to twist the facts to fit the theory because the Hypothesis should explain events directly if it is correct.  Rather like with the Wave Principle itself, the analyst can explain anything away after the event, but it has only limited predictive value in real time and will often lead the analyst to become emotionally attached to the wrong conclusion.  Cynics say that a valid hypothesis should not need so many excuses or postdiction.

At the extreme, critics say that despite Prechter's undoubted intellect and impressive work, the Socionomic Hypothesis is merely a pseudo-intellectual platform for enshirining a particular subjective view of the world as immutable doctrine (in caricature, "in a bull market everyone eats apple pie on Sunday; in a bear market, we see Pinko Commie Weirdoes everywhere."), or that it is simply observation masquerading as science, in an attempt to inflate further Robert R. Prechter's wallet, megalomaniac ego and messianic self-obsession.  Critics argue that counting the number of times Prechter quotes and cites himself supports this harsh assertion.

The most difficult problem of all for the socionomic approach is that the extremely bearish books by Mr. Prechter ('' At The Crest of The Tidal Wave'' (1995), and '' Conquer The Crash'' (2002) ), which draw upon Elliott's Wave Principle and Prechter's own melding of technical analysis with socionomics, have so far been auguries of enormous stock market rallies.

Prechter and his company Elliott Wave International have invested a large amount of effort in investigating the "magazine cover indicator" and have also lambasted the publishing of books such as '' Hot Commodities'' (Jim Rogers, Random House, 2004) and '' Demise of the Dollar'' (Addison Wiggin, Wiley, 2005) as strongly contrarian indicators, but for all of Prechter's efforts his own books seem to achieve exactly the purpose that he claims to avoid and many therefore consider him to be a reliable contrarian indicator.

In summary a critic might say that since 1995 Prechter's framework has occasionally produced impressive forecasts of negative events and that it is not without merit, but that it is too strongly weighted on the negative and often fails catastrophically on the rebound.  What for a Socionomist is overfrothing positive social mood for others is simply "progress".  Socionomics and by implication the Wave Principle must therefore be flawed, incomplete or simply badly-practiced by virtue of having failed to aniticpate the biggest bull markets in human history.

 
An alternative conclusion might be that Prechter was originally a phenomenal analyst but became so fixated on his desire for a legacy that he has become his own worst enemy, by dint of his monotonous issuance of the same doom-laden forecast like a man with a sandwich board proclaiming "the end is nigh!", by crying "Wolf!" too often, by his failure to moderate his tone in the face of fact and by his apparent inability to learn from his mistakes.  A subscriber to this view would believe that Socionomics is too closely entwined with Prechter for all of its claims to be taken seriously and that predicting Prechter is far easier than predicting the markets.

As Prechter's site itself says,  it's hard to remain serious in the face of folly passing itself off as 'analysis' or indeed the demagoguery Prechter publishes on his website.  His answers to questions posted on his website, to many critics, are more akin to an agony aunt's column responding to social and emotional problems of its readers who seek reassurance from an 'expert' rather than a science of 'objective analytical technique' as outlined and described in detail in his many books.

It is possible the concept will be taken one step further and Prechter may be giving insight into what Elliot's Wave principle offers in terms of explanation for not just social and emotional but also sexual problems. The start of a new science called 'Sexonomics' may help explain to people the ups and down in their relationships. 

== References ==
* Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (2002). '' The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics'' (Reissue ed.).  New Classics Library. ISBN 0-93-275054-0 (paperbound: ISBN 0-93-275049-4).
* Robert R. Prechter, Jr. (2003). ''Pioneering Studies In Socionomics''.  New Classic Library.  ISBN 0-93-275056-7.

==External links==

* [http://www.socionomics.net/ The Socionomics Institute]
* [http://www.socionomics.org/ Socionomics Foundation]

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